soc.history.war.world-war-ii

In article ,
Bill Shatzer wrote:

> The Japanese invasion forces numbered about 5,000. While some were
> sevice and construction troops, the actual "fighters" numbered about
> 3,500 troops - 1,500 in the 5th Special Naval Landing Force and some
> 2,000 in the Army Ichiki Detachment.

I'll admit to some confusion here. The sources I've seen agree on the
number for the 5th SNLF, but vary from 1000 to 2000 for the Ichiki
Detachment. I don't know what is correct. (1000 is about right for the
Detachment at Tenaru, but is it also for Midway?) In any case, I used
the smaller number without checking more closely.

> Marine ground strength on Midway totalled about 1,800 - the 6th Marine
> Defense Battalion reinforced by an anti-aircraft company and two
> companies from the 2nd Marine Raider Battalion.

The number I've seen here is around 2,500 Marines (400 of them in the
MAG).

In any case, I'd call this 'rough parity' - not what you'd want to
launch a firmly-opposed invasion.

> Coupled with naval gunfire support and (presumably) complete air
> superiority, that should have been sufficient to successfully invade and
> capture the island - albeit at some cost.

I'm not aware that the Japanese had any real doctrine for NGFS at this
point. The air superiority was limited, both in number (the carriers
were under-strength to start with, and were taking losses) and staying
power. There were sufficient US subs available that, had they simply
concentrated at the atoll, something useful might have occurred.

The Japanese were also landing over an open reef, against significant,
well-entrenched firepower. It seems to me to have been more like a mix
of Tenaru and Tarawa.

> The Japanese were notorious for snatching defeat from the jaws of
> victory

Sure, sometimes everyone gets lucky. Then again think of the first
attempt at Wake.

> Whether the Japanese could hold the island would be a completely
> different question. I doubt they could have done so for more than a few
> months - for many reasons.

Strongly agreed, if the US chose to take it back. It also could have
wound up like Wake or Kiska.