soc.history.war.world-war-ii

Dave Anderer wrote:

-snip-

> Fourth, at best the Japanese had a 1-to-1 ratio with the defenders.

That would be inaccurate as best I can determine.

The Japanese invasion forces numbered about 5,000. While some were
sevice and construction troops, the actual "fighters" numbered about
3,500 troops - 1,500 in the 5th Special Naval Landing Force and some
2,000 in the Army Ichiki Detachment.

Marine ground strength on Midway totalled about 1,800 - the 6th Marine
Defense Battalion reinforced by an anti-aircraft company and two
companies from the 2nd Marine Raider Battalion.

There were some addition US forces on the island - mostly ground crews
for the aircraft and support and administrative personnel - but their
fighting value would have been modest and certainly not appreciably
better than the additional 1,500 construction and service troops in the
Japanese invasion force.

Near as I can figure, the Japanese outnumbered the defenders by
something like 2:1 in actual combat troops and closer to 2.5:1 in total
troop strength.

Coupled with naval gunfire support and (presumably) complete air
superiority, that should have been sufficient to successfully invade and
capture the island - albeit at some cost.

> I don't see how the invasion could have succeeded.

The Japanese were notorious for snatching defeat from the jaws of
victory but assuming the US carriers were sunk and the remainder of the
Pacific Fleet chased back to Hawaii, I'd think the invasion would be
quite likely to succeed, absent a Japanese blunder.

Whether the Japanese could hold the island would be a completely
different question. I doubt they could have done so for more than a few
months - for many reasons.


Cheers,