soc.history.war.world-war-ii

On Mar 28, 12:40 am, WaltBJ wrote:
> Y'all are looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Japs
> occupying Midway meant that the IJN would have to defend it.

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I think Walt's 100% right about this. It isn't clear that the
Japanese had any interest in Midway itself. They believed it was
of critical, and perhaps irrational, importance to the U.S. and
the Americans would therefore risk the remainder of their fleet
in an attempt to defend or retake it. What they wanted was not
the island, but the American fleet.

If the IJN did take the island and the USN refused the bait, it's
hard to see how Japan would be better off. The further they
extended themselves, the more vulnerable they became.

Midway was a tremendous victory for the U.S. not because they
successfully defended the island, but because they sank the four
Japanese carriers for a loss of only one of their own. Had Japan
seized the island but lost their four carriers, it would have
been at least as bad for them and maybe worse. Had the IJN sunk
the three American carriers, lost none of their own, but failed
to take the island, it would have been a huge victory for them,
one that might actually have delayed the ultimate American
victory by quite a bit.

Alan