soc.history.war.world-war-ii

"Rich Rostrom" wrote ...
> During the battle of Midway, B-17s from
> Oahu attacked HIRYU before landing at Midway.
> Midway is 2100 km from Oahu; that would
> be within extreme range for a B-17, --
>
> I think it would be extremely difficult
> for the Japanese to invade and capture
> Midway while their transports were being
> bombed repeatedly.

insert from far downstream:
"Branek" wrote:
>Are you positive that early model B-17's could've
>made a round-trip attack on Midway from Hawaii --
-but a source I have gives the maximum range of a
-B-17C as 5,600 km. Oahu to Midway is 2,100
-km. So an Oahu based B-17 could reach Midway
-and return, and could carry at least some bomb load.

(to above, jmho, yes, some 'limited' bomb load,
very slow turnaround, ((4 hours out, 4 hours back,
averaging 1 trip a day probably doubtful at that stage))
probably not a lot more effective than as 'harrassment')

It is just my opinion, that if the IJN had
won, or even tied, in the sea/air battle of Midway,
the could (with difficulty) have captured Midway,
and this would have notably (*) delayed the
end of WWII.

Define win or tied?
OTL -IJN from 4 to 0, USA from 3 to 2
win - IJN from 4 to 2, USA from 3 to 0
tied - IJN from 4 to 1 or 0, USA from 3 to 0

How goes Midway Island?
IJN has plenty of good NGF ships, with adequate
spotting/adjusting aircraft, and illumination rounds.
Sail some in range at night, illuminate, and shell the
begebers, incapacitate airfield and any hope to use
the few USA and USN planes there.
Land troops - they pretty seasoned and experienced.
And with oddles of NGF, and time, can probably
take the island (as much as I love my USMC) when
denied resupply - logistics really starts to matter.

How this effects rest?
(been covered here and other ng.s, perhaps no
real good resolution, but will try a couple skips,
confident that Rich understands the blanks I leave in
this quick, rough outline.)
1. Guadicannal - our offensive is delayed.
If Japan gets airbase completed - then this makes
many other things more costly and difficult.
(i.e. even torps etc. to Australian based subs)
(i.e. less/later US troops training in Australia)
2. skip plenty - this delays our establishing advanced
submarine bases at Tulagi, Seeadler, Mios Woendi,
Siapan, Guam, and of course Subic Bay.
This reduces greatly our sinking of Japan's transport
ships - and thus lets them have more industrial military
output.
3. skip more - this makes our taking of
Marianas/Guam later. Delayed serious air bombing
of Japan. (A-bomb not likely to be sent via. China).
I do not think we would have sent planes with A-bomb,
when their is still an viable active air defense over Japan.
In our time line, the latter B-29 raids did not have
much effective opposition.

(*) How much delay?
I do not know. Certainly some. Maybe one
month, perhaps even as much as 1 year.
Lotsa butterflies can be argued.
((Certainly 6 Essex's and 5 Independances,
and 15 CEs a year do swing the tide of war!))